Intel. Just Check Back In Again In 2026
Intel reported Q124 revenue was $12.7 billion, down 17.5% QoQ but up 9% YoY. In a break with what had become a standard practice of large earnings beats over the past almost two years, this time around it was a a just-in-line result coming in at the midpoint of the guided range.
At 45.1%, non-GAAP Gross Margin was something of a highlight for the quarter, being up 6.7 points YoY, and up 0.6 points from guidance.
So far, so good, but once you venture back to GAAP territory, things don’t look quite so rosy. GAAP operating income was negative $1.1 billion compared to a positive $2.6 billion in the prior quarter. I’m not a financial guy, but even I can see that’s really not a good thing.
Looking ahead, Intel forecasted the current quarter to be $13 billion at the midpoint, up a measly 2.7% QoQ. To make matters worse, both Gross Margin & EPS will decline sequentially.
Intel finally managed a somewhat half-hearted full year 2024 forecast:
Forward-looking demand signals in our core markets improved at a measured pace through the first quarter, and we expect to deliver full-year revenue and EPS growth in 2024 with the pace of revenue growth accelerating in the second half.
This is in sharp contrast with TSMC’s forecast of >20% YoY growth. The fact that Intel declined to provide a growth number, or even range, speaks volumes about their confidence in what’s in store for the remainder of the year.
Not surprisingly, the markets had a negative reaction to Intel’s results and forecast with the share price currently down nearly 8% in after hours trading. Having enjoyed a rally that saw its share price double from ~$25 in early 2023 to ~$50 by the end of last year, Intel has now dropped ~30% thus far this year and currently sits at $32.4
This compares to the roughly $67 the company traded at just three years ago, shortly after Mr. Gelsinger took over as CEO of the company.
This was Intel’s first earnings call under the auspices of their new reporting structure aimed at providing greater transparency and accountability.
We review the results for each of the reportable segments, share some key takeaways from the Q&A session and discuss what we think is the likely trajectory of Intel’s share price in the coming months.
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