ASML's Gloomy Outlook Sinks Semis

Reality check time for ASML with flat 2024 outlook and collapsing order intake

ASML reported Q323 revenues of €6.7 billion, largely in line with guidance. Their outlook for Q424 was a respectable €6.9 billion at the midpoint, leaving the company on track for roughly 30% revenue growth for the year, as they had forecasted way back in January. Yet ASML shares were down more than 4% at yesterday’s close. Not only that, many of their peers and clients across the broader semiconductor industry sank by similar amounts, albeit newly issued US Export Restrictions on sales to China may also have been partly to blame.

What was it about ASML’s earnings report that drew such a negative response and how should we think about its impact for the broader semiconductor industry? Let’s dig in…