Learnings From The History Of Memory Part 1 - China’s DRAM Dreams

 Tue, 17 Oct 2017

Memory, both DRAM and NAND, are currently in a super-cycle characterized by tight supply and rising prices. Commentators are divided as to whether this cycle is different from previous cycles and consequently what the future holds for supply, demand and pricing. Furthermore, there are growing concerns that China’s semiconductor ambitions could soon result in the market being flooded with high volumes of low-cost DRAM. In this Insight, we examine the history of DRAM from inception to the present day, in particular looking at how market leadership which began in the US, transitioned first to Japan and then to Korea, with a largely failed attempt by Taiwan in between. We ask whether the conditions that allowed these leadership transitions to occur in the past could once again play out in favour of China’s determination to grow its indigenous semiconductor industry.