TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 & Q125 Look Ahead

I'm expecting 2025 to be another growth year for TSMC...

TSMC reported December 2024 revenues of NT$278.16 billion, up 0.8% MoM and up a remarkable 57.8% YoY. It marked the company’s highest ever revenue for the month of December, and the second highest monthly revenue in the company’s history.

Revenue for Q424 amounted to NT$868,460. At the company’s forecasted exchange rate for the fourth quarter of NT$32 to the US$, this amounts to $27.14 billion, the company’s highest quarterly revenue ever, and the third successive record quarter in a row.

The $27.14 billion recorded in Q424 compares to a forecasted midpoint of $26.5 billion.

Note that the USD/NTD exchange rate has diverged from the forecasted 32 to around 33.3 as of today. This will cause our reported US$ numbers to diverge slightly from the actual US$ numbers reported by TSMC on tomorrow’s earnings call.

For full year 2024, TSMC’s revenue amounted to NT$2,894.31 billion, an increase of 33.9% YoY. Again, using the forecasted exchange rate of 32, this amounts $90.5 billion, representing a 30.5% YoY increase in US$ terms and marginally better than the most recent forecast of “close to 30% in US$”, provided on the Q324 earnings call.

Looking ahead, how should we expect TSMC to guide the current quarter, indeed full year 2025? Let’s dig in…